2026: How Weather Forecast Accuracy Drops by Time Horizon

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Forecast skill decays predictably with lead time: 90–95% at 0–24 h, 80–88% at 1–3 d, 65–78% at 4–7 d, and 48–62% at 8–14 d across European domains.

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EPT-2 and EPT-2e consistently rank first on every horizon for 10 m wind, 100 m wind, 2 m temperature, and surface solar radiation when evaluated against real European ground stations.

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EPT-2’s native any-Δt architecture avoids the error compounding that affects fixed 6-hour step models, and that structure delivers measurable RMSE gains through day 14.

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Four-percentage-point accuracy improvements translate into €1.5 M annual savings for a 1 GW wind portfolio and €3 M for a 1 GW solar portfolio under typical European imbalance structures.

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Energy traders can validate these benchmarks on their own regions and variables by booking a demo with Jua.