ECMWF Hourly Forecast Accuracy: 2026 Benchmarks by Lead Time

1 / 5

ECMWF HRES remains the global benchmark for numerical weather prediction, with strongest accuracy in the 0–48 h window and progressively weaker skill at longer lead times.

2 / 5

Across 2 m temperature, wind, and precipitation, ECMWF HRES consistently beats NOAA GFS at every lead-time band, with the largest gap in the 48–120 h trading horizon.

3 / 5

Jua’s EPT-2 model outperforms ECMWF HRES on every energy-critical variable (10 m wind, 100 m wind, 2 m temperature, surface solar radiation) from 0–240 h, while EPT-2e surpasses the ECMWF ENS mean on both RMSE and CRPS.

4 / 5

EPT-2 updates up to 24 times per day at a fraction of traditional NWP compute cost, so traders act on fresher forecasts and capture measurable P&L gains of up to €1.5 M per GW of wind and €3 M per GW of solar annually.

5 / 5

See how ECMWF, GFS, and EPT-2 perform on your own region and variables. Run a live benchmark against 25+ models in under 5 minutes.