Weather Forecasting
1 / 5
Day-ahead ERCOT accuracy is benchmarked. Typical MAPE targets sit in the low single digits for load and mid single digits for wind, solar, and hub LMPs.
2 / 5
Ensemble forecasts such as EPT-2e cut MAPE by roughly 30–50% versus deterministic NWP baselines by quantifying uncertainty and improving coverage during heat waves and winter storms.
3 / 5
Wind ramps and cloud-cover swings remain the largest forecast risks. EPT-2e’s four daily updates and 5 km grid resolve mesoscale patterns that coarser models miss.
4 / 5
Better meteorology from ensembles flows directly into tighter LMP forecasts at major ERCOT hubs by reducing upstream load, wind, and solar errors that drive scarcity pricing.
5 / 5
Book a demo with Jua to benchmark EPT-2e against your current ERCOT forecast provider and quantify the P&L impact on your portfolio.
See how ensemble forecasts cut ERCOT day-ahead MAPE by 30–50%. Jua's EPT-2e outperforms deterministic models. Book a demo to benchmark your provider.