Research

2026 European Energy Market Forecast Accuracy Guide

1 / 5

European day-ahead electricity price forecasts still show material sMAPE gaps across major bidding zones, with the largest errors during Dunkelflaute and heatwave events.

2 / 5

Physics-constrained foundation models like EPT-2 beat ECMWF HRES and Microsoft Aurora at every lead time for the four weather variables that most directly drive electricity prices.

3 / 5

Pan-European spatiotemporal architectures capture cross-border flows and teleconnections that national models structurally miss, which reduces imbalance exposure for multi-zone portfolios.

4 / 5

Twenty-four daily refresh cycles deliver accuracy gains worth €1.5–3 M per GW annually by getting revisions to traders before intraday markets re-price.

5 / 5

Book a demo with Jua to benchmark EPT-2 against your current provider and quantify accuracy and refresh-frequency gains for your region.

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Only 47% of traders trust their models. See how Jua's physics-constrained AI cuts sMAPE errors across European bidding zones. Book a demo.

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