Research

Hourly Ensemble Forecast CRPS: Compute and Benchmark

1 / 5

The closed-form ensemble CRPS equation gives fast, production-grade scoring of hourly wind and solar forecasts without Monte-Carlo integration.

2 / 5

CRPSS against climatology quantifies real trading value. A 0.15 CRPSS at 24 h can translate to roughly €1.5 M annual savings on a 1 GW wind portfolio.

3 / 5

Careful lead-time slicing, missing-data masking, and the fair-CRPS correction for small ensembles keep benchmarks unbiased and actionable.

4 / 5

EPT-2e delivers lower CRPS than the ECMWF ENS mean on energy-relevant variables while updating 4× daily at up to 5 km resolution.

5 / 5

See how EPT-2e performs on your data and benchmark CRPS head-to-head against your current ensemble provider on the Jua platform.

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Master hourly ensemble forecast CRPS: compute, benchmark & deploy in production. Jua's EPT-2e outperforms ECMWF ENS on wind & solar energy forecasts.

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